WTO raises 2026 global trade growth forecast to 3.9% despite Middle East war
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth to 3.9% in 2026 despite disruptions to international supply chains caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The revised projection was contained in the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, released on Thursday, October 8, 2026.
The new forecast represents an upward revision of 2 percentage points from the 1.9% growth projected in March, with global merchandise trade expected to expand further by 4.1% in 2027.
WTO forecast and AI investment
The WTO said that although the Middle East conflict disrupted energy supplies and transportation routes, strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure helped offset the impact by boosting demand for AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and servers.
Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined by approximately 24% in the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments fell by 47%. However, increased supplies from alternative producers limited the decline in global crude oil exports to about 6% and LNG exports to just 1%.
Meanwhile, global investment in AI infrastructure is projected to increase by at least 30% in 2026, with capital expenditure expected to rise by another 10% to 20% in 2027.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala attributed the stronger outlook to the resilience of international trade and the ability of global supply chains to respond to disruptions.
“The numbers reflect trade resilience in action. When disruptions strike, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies flexibility to keep essential products flowing to businesses and households that need them. Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI,” she said.
The latest outlook also builds on the WTO’s 2025 World Trade Report, which projected that artificial intelligence could increase global cross-border trade by nearly 40% by 2040, provided governments adopt policies to bridge the digital divide.
Africa’s exports to grow 5.6% as regional trade outlook diverges
The WTO projects that Asia will lead global merchandise export growth in 2026 at 9.9%, followed by North America at 5.7%, Africa at 5.6% and South America at 3.4%.
However, Europe is expected to record a marginal contraction of 0.1%, while exports from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Middle East are projected to decline by 3.9% and 17.2%, respectively.
On the import side, Asia is expected to lead with 9.5% growth, followed by Africa at 8.9% and the CIS at 8.8%. North America and Europe are projected to record modest increases of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively, while Middle East imports could contract by 15.4%.
The WTO also downgraded its global commercial services trade growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, from 4.8% in March, citing disruptions to international travel and transportation. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.4% in 2027.
Nigeria’s trade performance
The WTO’s projection of stronger merchandise trade growth across Africa comes as Nigeria, one of the continent’s largest economies, continues to record an expansion in its international trade, with exports accounting for the larger share of total merchandise transactions.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s merchandise trade rose to N41.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, representing a 5.61% increase from N39.24 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025 and a 19.13% rise from N34.79 trillion in the preceding quarter.
Exports accounted for 65.20% of total trade, valued at N27.02 trillion, while imports stood at N14.42 trillion, representing 34.80%.
Nairametrics previously reported that Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus surged by 340.88% to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, up from N1.71 trillion in the preceding quarter.
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