Forecasters Compare Current El Niño to Record-Breaking 1997 Event
Climate experts are drawing parallels between the current El Niño and the powerful event of 1997, with one scientist saying the atmospheric patterns are strikingly similar. Azhar Ehsan, a climate researcher at Columbia University, noted during a September media briefing that the evolution of this year's phenomenon resembles what happened in 1997, when one of the most intense El Niños ever recorded took shape.
That winter, spanning 1997 into 1998, brought record-breaking and unusual extremes, according to an April 1998 report from the National Climatic Data Center. It ranked as the second-warmest and seventh-wettest winter in the United States since 1895.
The super-strong El Niño drove chaotic weather across the country. Ice storms battered the Northeast, while flooding rains soaked the Southeast and California. Florida was also struck by deadly tornadoes.
During a typical El Niño winter, the southern half to third of the United States tends to be wetter than usual, while northern states experience warmer and drier conditions. In the winter of 1997-1998, much of the country was warm and wet. California and North Dakota both had their wettest winters on record. Florida, Maryland, Nevada, Rhode Island and Virginia each recorded their second-wettest winters.
Florida saw heavy rain in December, with Tampa receiving over 15 inches. In January, New Orleans got more than 19 inches, Mobile, Alabama, recorded 17 inches, and Asheville, North Carolina, received 10 inches.
A severe storm in early January triggered flooding, ice storms and tornadoes across the eastern half of North America. The death toll reached 56 in the United States and Canada. Hundreds of homes were destroyed, and millions lost power.
The following month, California and the Southwest endured what was described as four weeks of nearly continuous storminess, leading to mudslides and widespread flooding.
Even areas that escaped heavy rain rarely saw sunshine. Des Moines, Iowa, experienced an 11-day cloudy stretch in December, according to the report, and Albuquerque, New Mexico, typically sunny, saw no sun in the days before Christmas.
Regions used to freezing winters instead had unusually warm weather. The report noted that the warmest February on record occurred across much of the upper Midwest and parts of the East, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.
For the first time, cities in northern Montana recorded no temperatures below freezing in December 1997. By the end of February, Lake Erie at Buffalo remained unfrozen, with water temperature at 36 degrees.
One benefit of the odd weather was a 10% drop in heating costs nationwide compared to a normal year. Such savings could be welcome in 2026, as energy costs have climbed.
Models suggest this year's El Niño will be even stronger than the 1997-1998 event. Expected to be super-strong, it is likely to cause drought in some regions, flooding in others, and as many as 451,000 weather-related deaths globally.
With a strong or super El Niño, the typical pattern of warm and dry weather in the north and cold and wet weather in the south becomes more likely. The exact dividing line shifts each year, depending on the jet stream's position.
This year's El Niño has been strengthening since it emerged over the summer. National forecasters say there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
While El Niño usually peaks in winter, there are already signs it has influenced weather in late summer and early fall. It is one reason the Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet, while the Pacific has seen active storms. Temperature and precipitation outlooks for the rest of the year also fit a classic El Niño pattern.
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