That Tinubu’s Independence address to the nation

President Tinubu returned on the eve of Independence Day, October 1, to Lagos after more than three weeks out of the country to address the nation as is customary for all Nigerian presidents before him.

The address titled ‘’From Reform to Prosperity’’ sought to declare to Nigerians that the difficulties occasioned by his administration’s economic reforms were over and would soon give way to all round prosperity and well-being. In other words, the hang of suffering that Nigerians have been groaning about over the past three-and-half-years since the administration came to power would soon be lifted ushering a new dawn happiness as the economy begins to see the positive fruits of the administration’s harsh but necessary economic policies.

In justifying these policies, President Tinubu said, ‘’for too long, the promise of Nigeria was undermined by choices that postponed difficult decisions and allowed deep economic distortions to grow. In 2023, poverty was rising and hope was nearly gone. The country’s situation was darker than ever. We had no choice but to act.’’

For effect, President Tinubu likened Nigeria’s situation to a cancer patient. ‘’The patient has a choice. He can begin treatment, endure its discomfort and fight the disease. Or he can ask only for morphine, dull the pain and leave the cancer to spread. For too long, Nigeria’s leaders chose morphine while praying for a miracle that never came’’.

President Tinubu claimed that, ‘’three-and-a-half years later, the evidence that Nigeria’s economic outlook has improved is undeniable. Our economy has grown by over four per cent this year. Both oil and non-oil sectors have contributed to the renewed period of stable growth.

“Oil theft is down. Inflation has fallen substantially from its peak. Our foreign reserves have been rebuilt, our foreign exchange market has stabilised, and in 2025 this country recorded its highest revenue from non-oil exports in its history, exceeding six billion US dollars.’’

Although the content of President Tinubu’s speech may sound positive and encouraging, the reality however reads the contrary. As the president was addressing Nigerians the price of fuel was going for between N1500 to N1600 depending on location. A few weeks before the price was hovering between N1300 and N1400. If war resumes once more in the Middle East between the United States and Iran, chances are that the price will spike. Is the government anticipating this and what contingency measures are being put in place to cushion the possible effects of this development? I say this because the President’s bullish remarks on inflation may be wiped out if oil prices spiked in the absence of contingency measures. We all know that in Nigeria, the price of oil is the main determinant of the price of items.

As the president seemed to believe that the reintroduction of subsidy amounts to economic heresy and has reiterated that the policy will be retained, many countries in the world have, in anticipation of rise in global oil prices, decided to introduce subsidies and other measures to stave off difficulties ahead. How then can President Tinubu expect prosperity when Nigerians will still be saddled with the double whammy of no fuel subsidies and a high cost of fuel prices in the coming weeks and months? Where lays the hope for prosperity?

The fact is many Nigerians are not convinced about the economic benefits of President Tinubu’s fixation with subsidy removal as the arguments adduced for the policy do not add up. No country in the world including the major market economies implement the policy as wholesale as Nigeria has. Secondly, in the absence of corrective measures against those the government knows are sabotaging the policy thereby preventing the people to whom it is meant for from benefitting, it amounts to an abdication of responsibility to unjustly punish the poor and vulnerable for the crimes of those responsible. If the government, which enacted the policy for the good of the people, does not appear to have the commitment to implement the policy to the letter, electing not to punish identified saboteurs, then government should be good enough to admit that implementation of subsidy removal was for reasons other than economic. In this sense many have come to believe that subsidy removal is a personal pet idea of President Tinubu to scoop up revenues from sectors where government is obligated to provide support for the people in keeping with the responsibility it owes them. In many respects withdrawal of subsidies is in effect petroleum tax instituted on the people. Whereas in the old subsidy regime many people were involved in the process including the poor, now with subsidy removal only a few are beneficiaries. Subsidy was removed as a benefit meant for the people to a benefit for the powerful few. If you asked me subsidy removal a la Tinubu was a clear case of creative accounting surreptitiously skimming off vast revenues stashed in one government cost centre by a smart cost accountant, to another cost centre more amenable for control and disbursement.

As President Tinubu was addressing the nation there is one consequential statistic that he glossed over; the 140 million Nigerians now identified as living below poverty line by the World Bank. That is over half the population of the country. The president did not acknowledge the existence of this inconvenient statistic and neither did he tell us how he plans to lift this multitude out of poverty in tandem with his pledge to move Nigeria from the current state of economic difficulties to the next stage of economic prosperity.

I suspect that President Tinubu’s hope and expectation on Nigeria moving to the next stage of prosperity is probably hinged on the trickle-down theory of economics the rich and wealthy will be expected to lead economic revival and growth after having been incentivized by favourable economic policies and legislation. For sure President Tinubu’s economic reforms seem to have been a boon for some despite the hardship brought on Nigerians generally. The government pointedly speaks of governors having more money at their disposal to execute projects etc.

But in the context of devaluation of the naira, massive corruption, heavy tax burden, galloping inflation and rising oil prices it remains to be seen how Nigerians could soon experience prosperity with these factors weighing heavily on their necks.

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