Trump’s redistricting was meant to save House GOP majority. It backfired

President Trump’s redistricting campaign backfired on House Republicans in spectacular fashion Tuesday, helping Democrats achieve massive gains en route to flipping control of the lower chamber in the next Congress.

The rare, mid-decade redistricting push was hardly the only factor challenging Republicans on Election Day, when GOP candidates were dragged down by the volatile economy, an unpopular Iran war, and Trump’s dismal approval ratings, which were well underwater as voters went to the polls.

But the new House lines, which were drawn to give Republicans double-digit gains across a number of GOP states, largely flopped in two respects. First, Republicans failed to knock off even a single Democratic incumbent Tuesday, including 10 sitting Democrats who were directly targeted by the new GOP maps.

And second, in some states, the new maps either diluted the conservative vote in traditionally redder districts or forced Republican incumbents to introduce themselves to large numbers of new voters. In both cases, the lines made the terrain more difficult for some Republicans — incumbents and newcomers alike — making seats that were once conservative strongholds more vulnerable to a blue wave like the one that hit Tuesday.

Those trends were most visible in Texas, North Carolina and Ohio, where Democrats kept their incumbents in place while knocking off a number of Republicans who were considered untouchable even the day before.

“Simply put, their gerrymandering scheme absolutely backfired,” Democratic Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.), the head of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, told reporters Wednesday. “And it should send a strong message to any Republican thinking of pursuing any more gerrymanders next year: They do so at their own peril, because it’s clear that the American people hate it when politicians pick their voters.”

It wasn’t supposed to turn out that way.

Beginning last year, Trump had pressed Republican-controlled states all across the country to alter their House maps with designs to pad the GOP’s tiny majority and prevent Democrats from seizing power.

No fewer than eight Republican states took up the challenge, redrawing the lines to lend Republicans a new advantage. The campaign was helped by a Supreme Court decision that deemed some Black-majority districts to be unconstitutional — a ruling that freed several red states in the South to adopt new maps eliminating Black-majority districts.

At the height of the GOP’s optimism, the changes were expected to flip 16 Democratic seats.

They didn’t come close.

While the effort paid dividends in several districts by driving some Democrats into early retirement, including Rep. Steve Cohen in Tennessee, Cleo Fields in Louisiana and Lloyd Doggett in Texas, most of the targeted Democrats stayed to fight it out. And all of them won.

That list includes Texas Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez; Florida Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz; Ohio Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman; North Carolina Rep. Don Davis; and Alabama Rep. Shomari Figures.

Florida Rep. Darren Soto also holds a lead despite redistricting, though his race has yet to be called.

In Missouri, Republicans initially thought they’d drawn Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) out of office. But the new GOP map was blocked by the courts, and Cleaver skated to a 12th term in the district around Kansas City, winning nearly 70 percent of the vote.

“The Democrats did a really good job in retaining their incumbents to run for reelection in those seats,” a GOP campaign strategist acknowledged. “If those are all open seats … virtually no money would be being spent there and it’s kind of an automatic pickup.”

Meanwhile, the new maps helped to undermine some of the GOP candidates in those same states.

In Texas, for instance, where Republicans sought to flip five seats, the new map helped Democrats knock off GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in a district Trump won by 18 points in 2024. Democrats also secured wins in the three other districts that Republicans thought were theirs, including in the 9th District, vacated by Democratic Rep. Al Green.

A similar trend occurred in Ohio, where Democrats not only protected their incumbents in newly redder districts but also picked up three GOP seats, including those held by incumbent Republican Reps. Mike Turner and Max Miller.

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) defended the state’s new map this week, noting that Republicans controlled 20 seats before redistricting and are on track to hold the same number after the midterms.

“So, it is what it is,” DeSantis said.

Still, Florida Republicans had drawn the new lines with designs to pick up four seats, and Democrats won two of the three incumbent races along with the open seat in the 22nd District, as well. And Soto may still hang on to his district, allowing Democrats to go four for four.

In Tennessee, meanwhile, the new lines might help to erase the advantage Republicans gained by eliminating Cohen’s blue seat around Memphis. That’s because GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais is fighting for his political survival in the 4th District after winning there with 70 percent of the vote in 2024.

North Carolina might have been the biggest surprise of them all. Not only did Davis defend his seat in the 1st District, but Democrats were on track Wednesday to pick up as many as six GOP-held seats, including in deep red districts that even Democratic operatives had not foreseen.

Democrats, meanwhile, also posted gains from their own redistricting effort in California, which was launched last year in response to Trump’s campaign.

“We made clear last year, when this corrupt effort to rig the midterm elections by gerrymandering congressional maps in red states all across the country began, that Republicans might start this redistricting and gerrymandering battle, but Democrats were going to finish it,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Wednesday.

“And last night, that’s exactly what happened.”