Return of split-ticket voting could hurt Republicans

There was a time decades ago when voters often engaged in split-ticket voting. That is, electing a Democratic candidate running statewide for one office — such as for president, governor or U.S. Senate — while electing a Republican for a different office. In recent elections, that practice had largely disappeared. But with the Trump-led Republicans doing so poorly in the polls, we may see a resurgence of the split-ticket voter in November.

Split-ticket voting used to be fairly common. What Ballotpedia calls “mixed-party election outcomes” rose from a low in 1920 to its peak in 1984, when 58.4 percent of voters would vote for both a Republican and a Democrat in federal and state elections. That practice fell to a historic low by 2016. In that year, no state elected a senator from one party while voting for the presidential candidate from the other party.

Just before the 2020 election, the Pew Research Center noted, “In an era of increasing partisanship, split-ticket voting continues to be rare in U.S. politics.” In that presidential election year, Pew claimed that only 4 percent of registered voters in states with a Senate election said they would be voting for a different party candidate for president and the Senate.

But split-ticket voting increased in 2024. According to Pew, voters in four states that voted for President Trump also elected a Democratic senator. Pew concludes, “That may not seem like a lot, but it’s twice as many ‘mismatches’ between states’ presidential and U.S. Senate results as in all Senate elections held in 2020, 2021 and 2022 combined.”

While Trump isn’t on the ticket in the coming midterm election, we may see an even bigger increase in split-ticket voting, helping Democrats running in statewide races in red states.

For example, in Texas, the Democratic candidate for Senate, state Rep. James Talarico (D), has led Republican candidate Attorney General Ken Paxton in the polls for weeks, usually by between 2 and 5 points.

In contrast, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has led his Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, in most, but not all, polls — usually by between 2 and 5 points.

Could very red Texas elect a Democratic senator and Republican governor? The polls indicate it’s possible.

And then there is Iowa, which has been voting red for several election cycles. As it stands, the Democratic candidate for governor, state auditor Rob Sand, has been polling consistently stronger than the Republican candidate, Zach Lahn. However, polling for the Republican candidate for Iowa’s open Senate seat, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), has been mixed against her Democratic opponent, state Rep. Josh Turek. So, at this point it’s quite possible that Iowa could elect a Democratic governor and a Republican senator.

Or consider Maine. The Democratic candidate for governor, former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, is polling way ahead of the Republican candidate, Bobby Charles, and has been for weeks. The incumbent Senate candidate, Susan Collins (R), has a small lead in some polls against her Democratic challenger, former state Sen. Troy Jackson (D), although she trails in others. However, in 2020, Collins was the one Senate candidate in the country who won in a state that voted for the presidential candidate from the other party, Joe Biden. If Collins does that again, it will be an indication of Mainers voting split-ticket.

There are several other states where there could be a senator/governor split ticket — Alaska, Ohio, Georgia, New Hampshire and Kansas, and possibly more.

The problem for Republicans is that most of these potential split-ticket races appear to be in red states where a Republican ends up on the short end of the ticket-splitting. Indeed, both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Center for Politics at the University of Virginia have recently made multiple rating changes for the midterm election, virtually all in favor of Democrats.

Split-ticket voting began to decline in the 1990s and 2000s, as both parties became more ideologically committed. Today, voters who align with either political party are generally reluctant to vote for candidates from the other. But Trump’s polarizing actions and comments, low approval ratings on the economy and inflation, and the war with Iran are pushing voters — especially independents but even many traditional Republicans — to reconsider their split-ticket reluctance.

Even longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove has announced he will be a split-ticket voter, voting for one Democratic candidate in Texas (for railroad commissioner) because of some very controversial remarks made by the Republican candidate.

If we see a return of split-ticket voting, or even worse for Republicans, a blue wave, Republicans will have no one to blame but themselves. They have followed Trump in abandoning long-held Republican principles on fiscal responsibility, limited government, and Congress’s constitutional role in declaring war and imposing taxes (tariffs).

When voters split their tickets in the 1980s, they were voting for candidates in both parties. In the coming midterm election, they won’t be voting for Democrats so much as voting against Republicans.

Merrill Matthews is the Texas state chair of Our Republican Legacy.

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