10 Democrat-held House seats most likely to flip
As the midterm landscape grows more favorable for Democrats, Republicans are still poised for key pickups in the fight for House control.
Forecasters have shifted a slate of House races away from Republicans in recent weeks amid voter frustration with President Trump and the GOP’s handling of the economy, immigration and the war in Iran, fueling Democrats’ hopes of clawing back power on Capitol Hill.
But there are still several blue House seats that could flip this fall, particularly in states where Republican-friendly redistricting made key districts tougher for Democrats — and every race counts as Republicans expand their 218-seat majority and buck current forecasts that they could ultimately gain nothing from this cycle’s redrawn maps.
Ratings are changing quickly, and forecasters differ in just how competitive they consider the country’s top races. Here are 10 of the Democrat-held House seats that are most likely to flip in November.
Alabama’s 2nd District
Republicans are very likely to pick up the newly drawn 2nd District in Alabama after the Supreme Court’s spring ruling weakened the Voting Rights Act, ultimately allowing Southern states to pass new House maps favorable to the GOP.
The high court’s initial decision in 2023 to strike down a GOP-approved House map paved the way for Alabama to create a new congressional map with a second Black-majority House district for the 2024 election. Proponents argued that the state’s Black population made up close to a third of the state, but the lines essentially packed Black voters into one district.
Litigation, however, wound all the way up to the high court again — and ultimately reversed the new changes, allowing a more GOP-favorable House map to be used in the 2026 cycle.
The decision directly impacts Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), who was elected under the 2024 maps in a House district that stretched east to west in southern Alabama and included Montgomery. He’s facing Republican Rhett Marques.
The district now hugs the southeastern corner of the state. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report’s partisan voting index puts the seat at a plus-seven Republican advantage.
Florida’s 9th District
Florida jumped into the redistricting war earlier this year at Trump’s urging, with aims of expanding Republicans’ 20-8 majority to a 24-4 advantage in the congressional delegation.
Democratic Rep. Darren Soto has held the central Florida 9th District for roughly a decade but now faces a tough fight against Republican Dan Green after gerrymandering gave the GOP a leg up.
Cook Political Report says Democrats still “have an outside shot” of holding the seat, but redistricting gave the GOP a major edge. It’s rated likely Republican, a step short of being solidly red — while Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) rates it even closer to Democrats as “lean” Republican.
Florida’s 25th District
Moderate Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is also running for reelection in a Sunshine State district made tougher by redistricting.
The new 25th Congressional District, which stretches from South Beach to Delray Beach, took in portions of the old 23rd and 24th districts, shifting it from a seat that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 5 points to one that would have favored Trump by 9 points in 2024.
The two-term lawmaker easily beat a progressive challenger in South Florida’s summer primaries but now faces Trump-backed Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R) in the general election.
Cook Political Report considers the race a toss-up, but DDHQ now considers it to lean Democratic — a potential bright spot for Democrats seeking to stem GOP redistricting gains.
Louisiana’s 6th District
The Supreme Court’s decision to weaken the Voting Rights Act has also created a new opportunity in the Pelican State, where Republicans passed a new map.
The same Supreme Court ruling in 2023 that allowed Alabama to create a new Black-majority House district also paved the way for Louisiana to create a new congressional map with a second Black-majority district.
Rep. Cleo Fields (D-La.) was the beneficiary of that decision, representing the newer 6th District — a sprawling area that crisscrosses from the Shreveport area to Baton Rouge.
But with the high court’s more recent ruling dismantling the Voting Rights Act, Republicans look poised to pick that seat back up.
The 6th District drawn for this year’s midterms is more compact in southeastern Louisiana and Cook Political Report’s partisan voting index gives Republicans a 16-point edge there. Notably, the election for Louisiana’s 6th District is on Dec. 12, with the primary slated for Nov. 3.
Maine’s 2nd District
Rep. Jared Golden’s (D-Maine) decision to opt against another run in the House has offered Republicans a rare opportunity to take back the GOP-friendly 2nd District in the Pine Tree State.
Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R), a longtime supporter of the president, is running against progressive state auditor Matt Dunlap for the open seat.
The seat last elected a Republican in 2016, and the district went for Trump by 9 points in 2024, according to The Downballot. Cook Political Report rates the seat as “likely Republican.”
Tennessee’s 9th District
Tennessee Republicans made a last-minute redraw of their House map after the Supreme Court’s blockbuster spring ruling, targeting Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen’s (Tenn.) Memphis-area seat. He opted to retire after the GOP’s redistricting push.
A district that previously went for Harris by 21 points now has a Cook Political Report partisan voting index of a 9-point advantage for the GOP. Cohen was already contending with a serious primary challenge from state Rep. Justin Pearson (D).
Now, the district — drawn as an “L” that runs through more than half of the state’s southern border before curving upward into Middle Tennessee — is poised to be represented by Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor.
North Carolina’s 1st District
Democratic Rep. Don Davis’s district was redrawn last year to favor Republicans as North Carolina joined the nationwide redistricting fight.
Davis now faces a 2024 rematch against Republican Laurie Buckhout two years after he defeated her by less than 2 points.
As Davis won a second term, the northeastern seat sided with Trump by 3 points. Under the new lines, the district favors Trump, who’s backing Buckhout, by 11 points.
Cook Political Report rates the race as more favorable for Republicans, calling Davis “without a doubt, the most vulnerable House Democrat in the country.” DDHQ has labeled it a toss-up.
Texas’s 9th District
Rep. Al Green’s (D) seat in Texas’s 9th Congressional District has merged with the empty blue seat vacated by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), yielding a more conservative 9th District in the suburbs of east Houston for the next Congress.
The old 9th District went to Harris by a whopping 44 points, according to The Downballot, while the redrawn district would have backed Trump by 20 points.
But there’s a bright spot for Democrats: Hispanic voters, who make up roughly 6 in 10 Texans in the new Houston exurbs district, are turning away from Trump amid economic frustrations, and could drive up Democrats’ numbers in the red stronghold.
Cook Political Report and DDHQ both rate the race as likely Republican, after moving the race toward Democrats last week. Democrat Leticia Gutierrez is facing the GOP’s Alex Mealer for the seat, after Green unsuccessfully ran in the Democratic primary for the 18th District.
Texas’s 32nd District
One of Republicans’ best Texas pickup opportunities is in the 32nd District, where Republican attorney Jace Yarbrough faces Democrat Dan Barrios.
The current seat, which stretches from the Dallas suburbs into east Texas, favored Harris by more than 20 points in 2024, but the redrawn district would have gone to Trump by roughly 18 points.
The current district, based in Dallas, is held by Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson, who will be out of the House next year after an unsuccessful bid for reelection in the new, safely blue 33rd District, where former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) is all but assured a comeback.
Cook Political Report rates the race as solidly Republican, while DDHQ considers it likely Republican.
Texas’s 35th District
Carlos De La Cruz (R), the brother of GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz (Texas), faces Democrat Johnny Garcia for yet another Lone Star State seat reshaped by GOP-friendly redistricting.
Rep. Greg Casar (D) has called the dismantling of his 35th District through redistricting the “illegal voter suppression of Black and Latino Central Texans.” He’s now running in the new 37th District, teeing up a wide-open race for his redrawn seat.
Now a Trump plus-10 seat, the 35th District is within Republicans’ reach. But, as with the 9th Congressional District, Hispanic voters make up more than half of the new, suburban San Antonio district, and the bloc’s upset with Trump could make the seat more of a lift for the GOP.
Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Republican, after shifting the race toward Democrats last week, while DDHQ rates it a toss-up.
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