Let the debates begin: 5 to watch this week

In today’s issue:

▪ Supreme Court back in session

▪ Trump touts diesel executive order

▪ Politico blocked from Air Force One

▪ Russia outbreak fuels concern

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General election debate season kicks into high gear this week with candidates meeting on stages throughout the country in races up and down the ticket.

Today marks exactly four weeks until Election Day and the first in a string of major faceoffs running through Friday. Several of them are for statewide Senate and governor races, while others are taking place in critical battleground House districts that could decide which party wins a majority.

Here are five of the most consequential debates to watch this week:

Maine Senate

One of the most pivotal Senate races for Democrats if they are to win back control of the upper chamber is knocking off Sen. Susan Collins (R) in Maine.

Collins will face off against former state Senate President Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee, for the first time tonight at 7 p.m. Jackson has had a long journey already, having run an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid earlier this year before quickly clinching his party’s nod for Senate after Graham Platner dropped out amid various controversies.

Now, Jackson is hoping to put the longtime senator on the defensive, as he has sought to tie her to President Trump‘s agenda. Collins has emphasized her independent streak and track record of directing federal money to the state.

The two candidates will meet again on Thursday at 8 p.m.

Despite the race taking place in a state that has mostly voted blue in federal races, polls suggest a tight race.

Iowa governor

The Hawkeye State has moved away from Democrats in recent years, but the party is hoping to return to its former success if a blue wave materializes.

State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat elected to statewide office four years ago, is perhaps the biggest source of optimism for his party in Iowa. Sand has been comfortably leading Republican Zach Lahn in polls for the governor’s race for months.

They’re trying to succeed outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), who won two terms but is one of the least popular governors in the country.

Still, Democrats can’t afford to get complacent in a state that has increasingly moved away from them in recent years. Lahn, a businessman, has promoted himself as an outsider to politics, while Sand has accused him of being a carpetbagger over his ties to Kansas.

Sand and Lahn will take to the debate stage at 8 p.m. EDT in Davenport.

Arizona 1st Congressional District

Democrats are running it back in an open district in Arizona with the same candidate as two years ago against a longtime former NFL kicker.

Rep. David Schweikert (R) passed on a reelection bid this year for an unsuccessful run for governor, leaving Arizona’s 1st District open. Democrats renominated former state Rep. Amish Shah, who lost to Schweikert by a few points in 2024, while Republicans turned to Jay Feely, who played for more than a half-dozen NFL teams over a 14-year career.

Shah and Feely will face each other at 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday. While this is the first time they will appear together as candidates, it won’t be the first time their paths crossed.

They previously worked for the New York Jets simultaneously during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, when Feely was the team’s kicker and Shah was the team doctor.

Washington 3rd Congressional District

On the other side of the coin, Republicans are looking to pick up a seat against the incumbent in Washington’s 3rd District.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) has been at odds with her party on a few occasions, most recently when she and Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) crossed party lines to help the GOP advance a few of their legislative priorities.

Still, Democrats would much rather have her in the caucus than handing the seat to Republicans. She’s facing state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R).

Republicans are hoping they could finally have an opportunity in this district after the party’s previous nominee, Joe Kent, lost two races in a row in 2022 and 2024.

One key aspect to watch is how Gluesenkamp Perez describes her role within her party, given her sometimes independent streak. She and Braun will debate at 10 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, hosted by the Nexstar affiliate KOIN. Nexstar also owns The Hill.

Michigan Senate

Michigan represents one of the few opportunities for the GOP to go on offense in the Senate, and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) will try to seize the momentum from Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 7 p.m. Thursday.

The debate will be hosted by Nexstar affiliate WOOD, which is based in Grand Rapids.

Polling has shown a close race between the candidates, though El-Sayed has narrowly led in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average since mid-August.

Rogers has sought to depict El-Sayed as far left and emphasized the nominee’s connections to the controversial political streamer Hasan Piker. El-Sayed has accused Rogers of being a yes-man for the president and corporate interests.

Rogers skipped one planned debate last month, leaving the stage to El-Sayed alone, but the two are expected to be present face-to-face for the first time this week.

▪ The Hill: Pete Hegseth’s get-out-the-vote effort draws mixed response.

▪ The Hill Insider: Trump’s deportation agenda haunts him in two House races.

Speaking of the DDHQ polling average, be sure to check out The Hill’s new webpage dedicated to all the news, polling and forecast models ahead of the midterm races with Election Day fast approaching. And sign up for Insider for access to all data and election tools needed for a full picture of where the races stand.

3 Things to Know:

The president said he will pay for his controversial “Patriotic Ads” with money raised for his super PAC, MAGA Inc., following backlash over the government-funded commercials touting his administration and denouncing socialism and communism. Critics argued the ads were an improper use of taxpayer dollars, and some Democrats had called for an investigation into them.

Trump has approved the death penalty to be carried out by firing squad against former Army Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan for the 2009 Fort Hood shooting in Texas that claimed 13 lives and injured 30 others. The shooting was the deadliest mass shooting on a U.S. military base in history. The military hasn’t carried out a death sentence since 1961.

Former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is slated to join Fox News as a contributor on Nov. 1. Leavitt left her role as the president’s top spokesperson at the start of September, saying she wanted to spend more time with family shortly after giving birth to her second child.

Leading the Day

Climate activists gather outside the Supreme Court as the Supreme Court hears arguments in Suncor Energy v. Boulder County, Oct. 5, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

BACK IN SESSION: The Supreme Court opened its first day of the new term with oral arguments in a major climate case that could determine the future of state and local efforts to recover damages from fossil fuel companies over their role in global warming.

The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports that several justices appeared unconvinced of the companies’ request for the high court to toss out a ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court allowing a lawsuit to proceed. It aims to hold Suncor Energy and ExxonMobil accountable for climate-related damages.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson questioned Suncor Energy lawyer Kannon Shanmugam over whether it’s premature for the court to even hear the case at this point. Conservative Justices John Roberts and Neil Gorsuch similarly asked the fossil fuel firm tough questions.

“A number of the discussions that you’ve had with my colleagues make me think that we’re really early in this case – that this is sort of premature from the standpoint of this court exercising its jurisdiction,” Jackson said.

Shanmugam said the planet-warming emissions are not necessarily directed at Colorado and argued Colorado state law should not apply to actions of companies operating outside the state. But Roberts pushed the lawyer on that argument, invoking a scenario in which someone in one state tries to throw a rock over a state border but unintentionally hits someone in a third state.

“If you’re in [State] B and you’re aiming at [State] C, but you hit somebody in [State] A, that doesn’t make a difference, does it?” Roberts asked.

But the chief justice also asked how the lawsuit, if allowed to proceed, would feasibly work, saying, “Presumably, if you prevail, the next day, a municipality in every single state will file a lawsuit.”

“There’s always going to be greenhouse gas emissions affecting every state,” Roberts added.

Boulder needs only four votes in its favor to win the case, since conservative Justice Samuel Alito recused himself. The fossil fuel firms would need five justices to side with them, since a split decision means the lower court’s ruling would stand.

▪ The Hill: Alito says he has hunch who leaked Dobbs decision.

▪ The Hill: Court ends Charleston church shooter’s bid to disqualify judge.

SEEING RED: Trump signed an executive order Monday to increase the availability of red-dyed diesel to address the high cost of the fuel.

This diesel isn’t different from regular diesel but is dyed red to signal that it is tax-exempt. It’s typically used in machines such as farm and construction equipment.

Trump said this order should save farmers “millions.” He announced the decision during a rally in Nebraska to support Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.).

Tom Kloza, the chief oil analyst for Gulf Oil, told Frazin that he doesn’t expect the move to make a significant difference in the overall price of diesel, calling it a “Band-Aid.”

The average price of a gallon of diesel has dropped a bit in recent days, though it currently sits at more than $6.30, well above its level before the start of the Iran war earlier this year.

▪ CNBC: Goldman Sachs says diesel prices to stay high through 2027.

ACCESS DENIED: The White House refused to allow journalists from Politico to board Air Force One on Monday, blocking the news outlet from fulfilling its pool duties to cover the president on his trip to Nebraska.

Washington Post reporter Katherine Doyle was allowed on the plane as the “secondary” travel print pooler, but the primary print pooler is the one who typically sends updates to other outlets.

“Since it [the White House] was unable to find a replacement, there is no primary print pooler on this trip,” she wrote in an email to colleagues.

Politico is one of three outlets — along with MS NOW and CNN — that Trump blocked from the White House last month, sparking a lawsuit on First Amendment grounds.

A federal judge ruled the administration violated the outlets’ due process rights, and journalists from the outlets were eventually allowed back into the White House. But the administration has since sought to keep CNN from carrying out its TV press pool duties on two occasions.

▪ The Hill: Trump calls for media outlets to be ‘arrested’ over rally coverage.

▪ The New York Times: Trump Media’s merger with nuclear fusion company.

NEW CRYPTO RULES: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) unveiled new proposals for regulating cryptocurrency markets, giving notice of its plans to move forward with rulemaking on both crypto asset transactions and markets.

The planned rules, which come just weeks after lawmakers failed to pass digital asset legislation through Congress, would outline how existing commodities law applies to transactions involving digital assets and would establish a new type of exchange that can register with the CFTC for the purpose of trading the assets.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig made clear that the intention is to create a “federal option for crypto asset exchanges” but would not require all to register with the agency.

“Only Congress has the authority to mandate that all crypto asset exchanges register with the Commission,” he said at Fordham Law School yesterday, according to his prepared remarks.

▪ The Hill: Crypto super PAC to back candidates in 32 House races.

▪ The Hill: Reflection AI releases first open model to rival China.

SHATTERED LEGACY: Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), the longest-serving Republican Speaker in the chamber’s history who became one of the highest-ranking U.S. officials to ever serve time in prison, has died at age 84.

He died Saturday of “natural causes,” a county coroner revealed Monday.

Hastert served as Speaker from 1999, taking over for Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), until 2007, when Democrats reclaimed control of the House, as part of a congressional career that spanned two decades. He played a key role throughout much of George W. Bush‘s presidency, helping usher through two rounds of major tax cuts.

But his legacy was overshadowed by revelations that he paid hush money to a man who alleged Hastert sexually abused him when the future congressman was a high school wrestling coach decades earlier. An investigation was launched into allegations that Hastert abused at least four boys at the school.

The statute of limitations concerning the abuse allegations had long since expired, but Hastert pleaded guilty to financial crimes related to his conduct, leading to a 15-month prison sentence.

Where & When

The president and first lady will participate in a gold star families reception at 1 p.m. He will travel to Baltimore to deliver remarks at the Sparrows Point Shipyard at 4 p.m. and then return to the White House.

The Senate will meet at 1:30 p.m. for a pro forma session.

The House will convene at 4 p.m. for a pro forma session.

Zoom In

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) greets JD Vance, then-Republican candidate for U.S. Senator for Ohio, at a campaign rally in Medina, Ohio, Oct. 21, 2022. (AP Photo/Phil Long)

GLOVES COME OFF: An increasingly personal clash between Vice President Vance and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has been playing out in recent days, offering an early glimpse of what the 2028 GOP presidential primary might look after the midterms, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports.

The vice president took aim at Cruz last week, saying it was “really obvious” that the Texas Republican planned to run for president in 2028.

Cruz shot back in an interview with Politico over the weekend, saying, “In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure.”

“So he’s welcome to make whatever comments he likes,” Cruz added.

Vance, as vice president, finds himself in a tricky position, having to navigate the administration’s poor approval ratings while building support within Trump’s MAGA base. Much of the early discussion about the 2028 GOP primary has focused on a potential contest between Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to be Trump’s heir apparent.

“Vance should be insecure because of Donald Trump’s poll numbers, and the fact that, at this point, Trump isn’t even willing to commit to his vice president is very telling,” Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who does not support the president, told Parnes.

As vice president, Vance cannot distance himself from the administration’s policies, but the latest feud with Cruz could be an opportunity for the senator, who “has found his moment to play on a no-win situation for JD Vance,” Del Percio said.

“If you’re Cruz, it’s just good politics,” she added. “He’s found a weak spot and he’s not letting go.”

▪ The Hill: Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) teases possible presidential bid.

▪ The Hill: Cruz slams Tucker Carlson for World War II comments.

Elsewhere

In this photo taken on May 18, 2016, medical doctor Rhett Kahn, points out a lung disease caused by silicosis on an x-ray in his consulting room in Welkom, South Africa. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

PLAGUE SCARE: The State Department said it’s monitoring the status of a suspected case of pneumonic plague in Siberia in the aftermath of the death of a lab worker.

The woman in her late 20s reportedly worked at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East, located in the Irkutsk Oblast in Russia. She was reported to have died from pneumonia of unknown origin.

More than 200 people are under medical observation in the area.

Russian authorities haven’t confirmed the cause of the worker’s death, but reports have indicated it may be pneumonic plague, a disease caused by the same bacteria that led to the Black Death of the 1300s. The bubonic plague is more common, though the pneumonic plague is considered much more serious.

The State Department told NewsNation that it’s aware of the suspected outbreak and is closely monitoring the situation, along with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other agencies.

“Many details have not been confirmed. We encourage Russian authorities to share accurate information quickly and openly,” an official said. “Plague is a known disease and is treatable with common antibiotics, especially when treatment starts early. Cases occur naturally in many parts of the world.”

Pneumonic plague can cause symptoms within one to four days after exposure that include weakness, headache, fever, chills, body aches, nausea and shortness of breath. If left untreated, the disease is almost always fatal, though it can be treated with widely available antibiotics.

Starting the antibiotics within 24 hours of symptoms appearing gives the best chance for survival. The disease can be spread through respiratory droplets from infected animals or people.

Trump weighed in on the outbreak Monday, saying he’s concerned and that the U.S. would help Russia with the suspected outbreak.

▪ The Hill: The Memo: Experts seek to calm panic.

▪ The Hill: Worries grow about suspected plague.

Opinion

Repealing the roadless rule ignores public approval, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) writes in The Hill.

Trump is turning out Democrats, but can he still do it for the GOP? The Hill’s Chris Stirewalt writes.

The Closer

President Trump speaks as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, and Vice President Vance listen in the Oval Office at the White House, April 23, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

And finally … Vanity Fair referred to Vance as the “MAGA heir” and Rubio as the “MAGA spare” in its “New Establishment” list Monday.

The list included several Trump administration officials and other top lawmakers, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and Big Tech leaders, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.

The magazine described the strengths and appeal of both Vance and Rubio as part of the 2028 presidential conversation while acknowledging their potential vulnerabilities. The list is made up of 50 people or groups who have “defined the moment,” referring to figures who should “inspire complicated feelings.”

Others in the president’s orbit include his children, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

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