Trump, Republicans spend big in midterm home stretch

Republicans are banking on last minute injections of cash to boost the party’s most vulnerable candidates less than two weeks out from Election Day.

President Trump announced on Tuesday that his political operation will spend over $400 million to support GOP candidates, while the Republican National Committee (RNC) confirmed it is transferring $50 million into groups behind the efforts to defend the House and Senate majorities.

The massive spending effort comes as polls show the Republican majority in an increasingly precarious position.

“I’d rather have it in a toss-up situation than not, but at this point, it’s going to take more than money in either direction, Republican or Democrat, in some of these contested races to get through the finish line and get there first, but money is a part of that equation,” said one Republican strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

According to recent Federal Election Commission filings, the president’s MAGA Inc. super PAC has spent $277 million over the last six weeks.

The RNC moved over $44 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) from mid-August to mid-October. The two committees evenly split the funds. Both committees are also expected to receive $6 million more from the RNC before Election Day.

Some Republicans have said they would have liked to see more spending from groups like MAGA Inc. sooner, noting that rates for advertising space spike before elections.

“It’s certainly better than nothing but it is still [two times] if not more the cost of a candidate ad,” the unnamed strategist said.

The RNC’s infusion to the NRCC and NRSC is aided by a summer Supreme Court ruling that walked back restrictions on political party spending, allowing parties to coordinate and spend unlimited sums with campaigns.

“We’re now deploying it aggressively and strategically to directly benefit our candidates when and where it has the highest impact, giving Republicans the hard dollar edge in key battleground races across the country,” RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said in a statement announcing the transfer on Tuesday.

Republicans are spending big as they appear on track to lose the House, with just a 22 percent probability of holding the majority in the latest forecasts from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). Their chances are better in the Senate, but there’s a 56 percent probability the upper chamber could also slip away.

Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted its ratings of 11 House districts and two Senate contests away from the GOP, while they moved just one Senate race away from Democrats.

“Even a novice political observer would have told you a month ago Republicans were going to lose the House,” said the unnamed Republican strategist,

Observers say another sign that the House majority is a lost cause comes from Trump’s blitz through red states to prop up candidates in key Senate races and play defense in districts long seen as lock-ups for the party.

Along the trail, Trump has urged his base to “pretend I’m on the ballot” and pledged $5,000 “Trump dividends” for U.S. adults if Republicans keep control of both chambers.

He said on Tuesday that he’s already spent over $300 million on “Advertising, Direct and Indirect Voter Contact, Rallies, Rally Arenas, Telerallies, Get Out the Vote Programs, Election Integrity and more” in the midterms, with plans to spend upwards of $400 million by Election Day.

The closing-weeks cash surge could certainly help, said a second Republican strategist, but with just two weeks to go until the election, “money has diminishing returns right now” amid a “supersaturation rate” for ads.

“Most of the TV has been purchased. There’s always options for digital, but a ground game, some sort of a get-up-a-vote effort, which would turn out low propensity voters, would be key or ideal, but we’re just so late in the game,” the strategist said.

That’s forcing campaign operatives to make strategic decisions as races come down to the wire.

Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst for DDHQ, pointed to recent reports that Republicans are pulling money out of some tough races, including cuts in battleground House districts in New Jersey and Iowa.

Such moves could be interpreted as Republicans “almost admitting that they’re going to lose the House,” Skelley said.

“The challenge with the sort of ad spending and outside spending data is that, especially this late in the ball game, that dollar is not going nearly as far in terms of booking ad time,” Skelley added. “And we have continued to see Democratic candidates raising a lot more money than Republican candidates. … At the same time, look, Republicans definitely have more money.”

The RNC entered the year with a staggering $100 million cash advantage over its Democratic counterpart, but Democratic candidates pulled in massive third-quarter sums, according to the latest filings.

From July through September alone, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico raked in $64 million in his Texas race against Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton, while Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) brought in $33 million against Trump-backed Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.). Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed also notched $31 million against former Rep. Mike Rogers, another Trump pick, in Michigan.

“You’re trying to defend the Senate, and well, you’ve got really expensive TV markets in Texas, and you’ve got millions and millions and millions of dollars that you can throw at the problem,” Skelley said of Republicans and the congressional map. “It’s like, well, of course you’re going to throw the millions. Whether or not it can work to substantively change the race is harder to say.”