Rising 2027 Premiums Threaten Republican Hopes in November Midterms

Republican health care policy over the last 15 years has amounted to little more than denouncing ObamaCare. That approach has not only failed but is now compounding the party's difficulties ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Health insurance premiums for 2027 are climbing steeply, and the rate announcements are landing just before voters head to the polls in November. Employers are confronting an average increase of 8 percent, a figure that outstrips inflation, and a portion of that added cost is expected to be shifted onto workers. On the individual market, premiums are also rising: Pennsylvania will see an average hike of 16 percent, Ohio 15 percent, and Iowa somewhere between 12 and 16 percent. The financial impact will be widespread.

President Trump has secured agreements aimed at lowering drug prices for Medicaid recipients and offering discounts through Trump Rx coupons, but these steps have done little to address the underlying cost problem. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that health care inflation has eased, yet the Consumer Price Index captures only part of health insurance premiums. The uncomfortable reality for Trump and Republicans is that people still pay the full premium amount, and those amounts keep growing.

This pattern brings to mind the Biden administration. Team Biden repeatedly claimed inflation was not a concern, dismissing it as right-wing propaganda. What they overlooked was that the consumer price index excludes interest rates, which more than doubled. Consequently, out-of-pocket costs for purchasing and financing a home, or any other financed purchase, rose by over 80 percent.

Consumers, however, are not swayed by government reports or statistical releases. They watch their bank balances and their monthly bills. When they are falling behind, no amount of denial or bluster will persuade them otherwise.

What makes this even more concerning for Trump and the Republican Party is what happened to Biden in the fall of 2023. As previously noted, Biden's polling against Trump suffered a major decline in key swing states. That was attributed to the Hamas attacks on Israel and a worsening immigration situation. But the 2024 health care premium increases were also announced during that period, and those increases were substantial.

Denial and claims of corporate greed did not rescue Biden or Kamala Harris, and they will not rescue Trump and the Republicans either.

The tragedy is that Republicans had chances to act but did nothing. It sounds trite, but there is nothing "affordable" about the Affordable Care Act. Former President Barack Obama showed little interest in addressing the price side of the equation. Suspiciously scheduled to start after his 2012 re-election bid, ObamaCare has failed over the past 14 years to slow the rise in health care costs and insurance premiums.

Although productivity and innovation generated gains and low inflation in the broader economy, at least through 2020, healthcare has remained resistant to these trends. It is still bureaucratic, wasteful, and lacking in competition. ObamaCare has done nothing to alleviate Americans' worries about health care.

Voters have repeatedly named health care as a top concern. In its Sept. 14 benchmark, YouGov placed health care as the third most important issue, unchanged from six months earlier. And these findings understate the actual level of anxiety.

Health care worries are intertwined with cost pressures, in other words, inflation. YouGov has inflation as the leading issue by a wide margin, two and a half times more important than "jobs and the economy," which ranks second. Six months ago, inflation was also on top, twice as important as "jobs and the economy." A Center Square poll found that 59 percent of respondents support price caps.

The Republican response has veered between inept and uninformed. The party cannot even pass a price transparency bill. Nearly every other product and service in America displays a price upfront. Only medical care routinely conceals prices until after the consumer has used it. Even the most ardent free-market advocate should find this unacceptable. Price discovery is a cornerstone of any well-functioning market.

Price discovery is not a cure-all for reducing costs, but it is a move in the right direction. Yet the Republican Congress cannot even take that single step, and Trump appears completely disengaged. Price transparency should have been passed last year, enabling Republicans to advance with at least some fundamental administrative and bureaucratic reforms.

Instead, they have accomplished nothing. The Republican Party has become a party that complains rather than solves. If the midterms result in a Democratic rout, they will have no one but themselves to blame.

Keith Naughton is a former campaign consultant and co-founder of the public affairs firm Silent Majority Strategies. Find him on his Substack, "Betting On Politics."

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