Iran is losing — that’s why we should expect and prepare for more terrorist attacks

Contrary to the picture conveyed by some U.S. media, Iran’s regime is not doing well in its ongoing war against America and Israel. Damage to its nuclear-weapons program, air defenses, and military-industrial complex is significant. Its economy, already in wretched shape before the war, has deteriorated further because of the U.S. naval blockade. Gulf Arab oil exports are rebounding because Tehran has failed to close the Strait of Hormuz and hold the global economy hostage.

American successes, however, do not mean Iran’s regime is defeated, much less overthrown, which should be Washington’s objective. Instead, surviving elements of its badly fractured regime may well be turning away from conventional military operations — a losing game for the regime, perhaps — and instead toward terrorism and other forms of asymmetric warfare.

Lower-profile and somewhat deniable acts of terrorism, undertaken away from the battlefield, could sap U.S. resolve and give Tehran time to recover from the initial American-Israeli bombings.

Two recent terrorist incidents, both fortunately unsuccessful, may provide a partial insight into a larger, longer-term Iranian strategy.

The United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force base at Fairford, England, is far from Iran, but not far enough to keep Iranian-backed terrorists away. Specifics are still emerging about what appears to be a thwarted attack on RAF Fairford, whose facilities are critical to US Air Force operations in Europe and the Middle East and especially in Washington’s attacks against Iran’s nuclear program and military-industrial complex.

U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said publicly there are “strong indications” Iran was involved. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that his government had supplied Britain intelligence about possible Iranian threats just before London foiled the potential attack.

Terrorist attacks in Great Britain by the Provisional Irish Republican Army in the 1960s and 1970s led to significant efforts, especially in London, to make bombings and other attacks more difficult. After 9/11, as in the U.S., more security steps were taken, but vulnerabilities remained.

In 2018, Russian agents poisoned the Russian exile Sergei Skripal and his daughter, but they were treated and survived. Tehran has long posed threats to regime opponents among diaspora Iranians, with more than 20 mortal threats reported since 1922. The Jewish community IN THE U.K. remains under Iranian terrorist assault.

There is, as yet, no evidence of Iranian involvement in the attempted hijacking of FlyDubai 1073 by its co-pilot, Omani citizen Hamam al-Hammami. Nonetheless, the government of Oman, a Muslim Arab nation, considered his views sufficiently extremist to bar him from flying for the state airline. Why FlyDubai later hired al-Hammami, and why he was assigned to co-pilot flight 1073 are still not publicly known.

Even if Hammami is actually a “lone wolf” terrorist, radicalized and operating on his own, he has brought the reality of suicidal aircraft hijackings back to center stage globally. Notwithstanding the countless safety improvements made since 9/11, this Islamicist found a hole in air travel’s defenses, and nearly murdered 182 passengers and crew. Using the “crash ax” stored in cockpits for use in emergencies, Hammami severely wounded the pilot and seized the airplane’s controls. It is not yet known whether he intended to crash the plane in the desert or strike a building in Israel, al Qaeda-style.

Although we are still operating with incomplete information about both Fairford and FlyDubai, we know enough to take corrective actions, particularly against other potential Iranian threats.

The fact of Fairford’s role in the war against Iran weighs heavily in favor of Iranian involvement. The U.S. and Israel should be concerned about further attacks on military, diplomatic or even private, commercial targets at home and overseas, and considering and implementing enhanced safety precautions. Iranian assassination attempts in the U.S. against President Trump and others, in retaliation for U.S. elimination of Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani, have already occurred. More such attempts are likely, given the current war.

Iran may have had no involvement, even indirectly, with FlyDubai 1073. But the publicity attendant to the attack could well inspire others, quite apart from Iran. Accordingly, American and international civil aviation authorities should not simply brush aside the specter of more 9/11-style hijackings by “copycats,” or even Iran itself getting into the act if it wasn’t already.

With FlyDubai as the impetus, considerably greater attention should be given to what could pose dangers on the air-side of airports, after security, not just on the public-facing land-side. Screening passengers and cargo entering airports was not FlyDubai’s problem, although that scrutiny should hardly be lessened. Instead, the potential threat arises from the workaday demands of running a complex transportation business largely out of public view, what it involves and who has access to it.

We treat Fairford and FlyDubai as mere isolated incidents at our own peril. We have been warned. We should move rapidly now, with Israel and other allies, to guard against more terrorist attacks.

John Bolton was national security adviser to President Trump from 2018 to 2019 and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006. He held senior State Department posts at times between 1981 and 2005.

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