Nigeria records 3.33 million barrels of crude oil theft in 2025 – NUPRC

Nigeria recorded 3.33 million barrels of crude oil theft in 2025, with about 66% of the reported volume occurring in the fourth quarter, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The commission disclosed this in its 2025 annual report released on Thursday, which also detailed the country’s crude oil production, domestic supply, exports and field development activities during the year.

The figures show that reported theft was heavily concentrated towards the end of 2025, even as the commission outlined plans to expand the country’s oil and gas production capacity through new field developments.

Fourth quarter accounts for most oil theft

The quarterly breakdown showed significant variations in reported losses:

Nigeria recorded 896,471 barrels of crude oil theft in the first quarter.

The second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume in its reconciliation.

Reported theft stood at 440,434 barrels in the third quarter.

The fourth quarter recorded 2.19 million barrels, the highest quarterly volume of the year.

The annual report also showed that Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025, based on the quarterly figures. Production was relatively stable, rising from 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter to 137.69 million barrels in the second quarter, before easing to 137.45 million barrels in the third quarter and 133.23 million barrels in the fourth quarter.

Unblended condensate production added another 48.52 million barrels during the year.

NUPRC approves plans to expand production

Beyond the production and theft figures, the commission reported progress in processing field development plans aimed at increasing Nigeria’s upstream capacity.

NUPRC processed 75 field development plan applications in 2025, comprising 58 received during the year and 17 carried forward from 2024. Of these, 48 were approved, 10 rejected and 17 remained under processing at the end of the year.

The approved projects are expected to develop about 1.75 billion barrels of oil reserves, 104.48 million barrels of condensate reserves and 8.19 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves.

They are also projected to add approximately 743,830 barrels of oil per day, 23,707 barrels of condensate per day and 3.09 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day to production capacity.

According to the commission, the approved projects are expected to achieve first oil between 2026 and 2030. Seven of the 48 approved plans are focused exclusively on non-associated gas development.

Oil theft and Nigeria’s production outlook

The latest figures come amid ongoing concerns about crude oil losses and Nigeria’s ability to meet its production targets.

In August 2026, Tony Elumelu said Nigeria’s oil production losses had declined from 97% before President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023 to 2% as of June 2026, according to a report by Nairametrics.

Elumelu had previously raised concerns about crude oil theft in March 2022, when he said Nigeria was losing more than 95% of some oil production to thieves.

For 2026, the Federal Government’s budget is based on crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day and an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.

However, Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.505 million barrels per day since July 2026, according to OPEC data.