Midterm shellacking shakes up GOP 2028 presidential landscape

The massive Democratic victories across the country on Tuesday are shaking up the 2028 presidential landscape for Republicans and raising questions about how badly Vice President Vance will be damaged in the fallout.

Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress, including in red strongholds like Texas and South Carolina, in what was seen as the strongest rebuke of President Trump yet.

The losses have left Republican presidential contenders including Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an awkward position; central figures in a clearly unpopular administration.

“If you want to be the Republican President in 2028, not just the nominee, but actually the person who sits behind the Resolute Desk, you have to be close enough to Trump to win the primary, but not so close that he drags you down in the general,” said Trump’s former chief of staff Mick Mulvaney.

“That is a tall order,” Mulvaney added. “Of course, Trump’s ability to rehabilitate himself is almost superhuman, so that calculus could easily change in the next 12-18 months. But if he doesn’t, it will be difficult sledding.”

Many Republicans point to Vance as the biggest loser out of the potential 2028 contenders last night, considering he spent political capital in many key races that were lost, and is Trump’s second-in-command.

Tim Chapman, president of Advancing American Freedom, said these results “100 percent” will transform the 2028 presidential landscape.

“You cannot experience a once-in-100-year tsunami-like election and conclude that the status quo is acceptable,” Chapman said. “You just can’t do that, and you certainly cannot experience repudiation like that, and conclude that there should be a coronation going into 2028.”

“Compared to 24 hours ago, this is a completely different world,” he added. “And what the world looks like now is that the American people have told Republicans you need to rethink your approach to politics.”

Vance’s supporters are taking a rosier approach, noting that his role in the administration gives him the best launch pad to the presidency.

“Everybody in the administration is going to be tied politically to the challenges that we saw last night, everybody is kind of hurt equally,” said Chris Johnson, an Ohio Republican strategist.

“He’s the vice president. He’s the next guy, and I think folks are going to be looking for somebody who is going to say hard truths about what happened yesterday and also have a vision for the future that’s going to work in the next election,” he continued.

One GOP strategist said that the election results may have done slight damage to Vance’s odds, but not by much.

“Did it diminish them? Yes, but he is still the favorite,” they said.

The vice president, who has not announced a 2028 bid, blamed his party’s widespread losses on the Iran War, which he was an opponent of within the administration.

“If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” Vance wrote in a lengthy post on X, urging Republicans to use their anger to “get back to the work of saving our country.”

Additionally, the vice president listed four answers from former GOP voters to a pollster on what it would take for them to come back to the party fold: ending the war, focusing on the cost of living and inflation, putting America First, and changing our relationship to Israel.

“Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats,” the vice president wrote.

Trump responded to Vance’s statement on Wednesday, telling reporters that he “thought it was good.”

However, Trump did not say whether Vance or anyone else was launching a 2028 bid.

“We will see what happens,” he told reporters. “You don’t know who’s talking about running.”

“Maybe you have a lot of people running. Maybe nobody’s going to run. Maybe he won’t run. I don’t know who’s going to run,” he said.

No major Republicans have formally announced presidential ambitions, but early jockeying for 2028 appeared to have kicked off among some lawmakers hours after the initial results came in.

Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.), who was reelected on Tuesday, told Fox News Digital that he was throwing his support behind Rubio following the GOP’s midterm performance.

“I think the challenge for Marco is the challenge for anybody who wants to be the 2028 nominee – you’ve got to find a way to fuse together a coalition that right now is at war with itself,” Chapman said.

Meanwhile, speculation has been swirling around Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R ), who locked horns with Trump in the 2024 Republican primary. DeSantis was arguably one of the few GOP winners of election night, keeping his state red amidst a blue tsunami, albeit by a narrow margin.

DeSantis, who is term-limited and leaving office in January, wasted no time touting Republican victories in Florida and offering his own assessment of what went wrong for the party nationally.

“To call it a wave would, I don’t think would be fully accurate. It’s the political equivalent of a meteor strike,” the governor said in a press conference on Wednesday morning.

“The one state that was able to hold the line and withstand that is right here in the free state of Florida,” he said.

Some Republicans think a governor leading their party in 2028 is the way to go.

“DeSantis, [Georgia Gov. Brian] Kemp, and even [former Virginia Gov. Glenn] Youngkin are the smart play for our party,” said a second Republican strategist, adding they believe DeSantis is open to the prospect.

However, there are questions about whether DeSantis would be able to fit into the Republican Party dominated by Trump’s MAGA movement after losing to the president in 2024.

“I don’t think that matters because MAGA won’t be the same MAGA without Trump,” the strategist said, adding, “JD won’t have access to the same MAGA either.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has also found himself toward the top of lists of potential Republican 2028 contenders, and has not ruled out having presidential ambitions.

Vance even said in an interview with NBC News last month that it was “really obvious” Cruz was running for president, prompting Cruz to suggest Vance was “feeling insecure.”

However, the massive Republican losses in Texas’ could spell trouble for Cruz.

“As sole statewide [Republican] in Texas, he can’t leave and run for president while also helping lead a GOP state recovery. He has to choose,” the second GOP strategist said.

Other Republicans have expressed skepticism that a senator would ultimately win the nomination. Johnson noted that any potential Republican governors interested in running would need to jump on the national stage sooner rather than later.

“Other than DeSantis, there’s just not a lot of these guys that have a national profile that’s going to be the kind of name recognition you would need to break through,” Johnson said. “They would need a moment very soon where they become the guy or the gal that breaks the mold.”

Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist, however, said “the calculus doesn’t change.”

“It’s going to be either J.D. Vance or one of the two Floridians – Marco Rubio or Ron DeSantis,” he said.

“Elections are about name ID and a little bit of swagger,” he added.