Lawler trails Conley in battleground New York House contest: Poll
Democratic candidate Cait Conley inched ahead of incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R) in New York’s 17th Congressional District House race, up two percentage points in polling results released Thursday.
The Emerson College and PIX11 survey found around 48 percent of likely voters in the district supported Conley, while 46 percent backed the Republican lawmaker. The remaining respondents were still undecided less than five weeks out from the November election.
The Democrat’s lead notably fell within the poll’s almost 5 percent margin of error.
The survey found a slight decrease in Lawler’s favorability among voters in his district since October 2024. Ten percent of respondents in the September survey said they had “never heard of” their congressman.
Lawler was first elected to represent New York’s 17th District in 2022, which includes the lower Hudson Valley in the southern part of the state. The Republican has touted his legislative record on the campaign trail, including his support for President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Conley, a retired Army combat veteran, has campaigned on lowering healthcare costs, banning stock trading for members of Congress and placing restrictions on energy rate increases.
In a debate earlier this week hosted by News12 in Long Island, the two candidates sparred over federal immigration enforcement operations, data centers and the Trump administration’s tariff fights with trading partners like Canada.
In one heated exchange between the candidates over a question on American aid to Israel, Lawler argued that this financial support is in the interest of the U.S. and its troops in the region.
He also pushed back against criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza during the debate, saying, “They have not committed a genocide.”
A majority of respondents in the Emerson poll, 52 percent, said they opposed the U.S. military operations against Iran — including 83 percent of Democrats, 15 percent of Republicans and 44 percent of independent voters.
The poll also asked voters in the district about the top issue facing New York. Thirty-one percent named economic conditions, while 23 percent answered with “threats to democracy,” 13 percent indicated immigration issues and 12 percent selected housing affordability concerns.
The survey was conducted from Sept. 27 to 29 among 400 likely voters with a margin of error of approximately 4.9 percentage points. PIX11 is owned by Nexstar, which also owns The Hill.
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