Most in new poll oppose bets on elections
Most Americans regardless of party oppose betting on election results with prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket, according to a new survey.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, released Monday, found that 60 percent of respondents did not support betting on election results, as the midterm elections closer. Another 13 percent said they support betting, while 24 percent were unsure and 3 percent skipped the question.
Prediction markets allow people to place wagers on the outcome of various events, from elections to sports to the economy.
Among Republican respondents, 61 percent opposed election-result betting, 16 percent were supportive, 23 percent were unsure and 1 percent skipped the question. Just under 70 percent of Democratic respondents were against the move, while 12 percent approve, 18 percent were unsure and 1 percent skipped, the survey found.
The results differ when considering betting in other markets. Roughly 43 percent of respondents oppose betting on professional sports, 29 percent approve it, 25 percent were unsure and 4 percent did not answer.
Broken down by party, about 44 percent of Republican respondents and 50 percent of Democrats opposed betting on sports. Another 33 percent of GOP and 29 percent of Democratic survey takers supported this kind of wagering.
Prediction markets jumped in popularity around the 2024 presidential elections when $3.7 billion was spent on Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” according to the platform. Around $1.3 billion dollars was wagered on President Trump winning the election on Polymarket alone, while $1.03 billion was spent on former Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election, the data shows.
A Polymarket spokesperson told The Hill, “Most Americans are deeply disenchanted with our information ecosystem, because it’s often impossible to find the truth and avoid being scammed.”
“Prediction markets are a way to get unbiased, accurate information about the events that impact our lives,” the spokesperson continued. “Recognition of the public value of prediction markets is growing, but they’re still brand new to most, and it’s going to take some time for the public to learn more and see the real value.”
The momentum is also tied to a 2024 federal court ruling that stopped the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a small financial regulator that monitors derivatives markets, from blocking bets on elections.
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, called prediction market betting in the 2026 midterm elections “the wild west right now.”
“We’re in real new territory, and it’ll be interesting to see how state and federal governments and others respond to it,” he added.
This underscores the worry among lawmakers about the possibility of corruption. Kalshi is reportedly investigating at least three trades placed on its platform shortly before news outlets began announcing Trump’s selection of his next press secretary, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Kalshi did not respond immediately to The Hill’s request for comment.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 among 4,506 respondents. The margin of error is 2.3 percentage points.
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